II. THE PARKFIELD DRILLING PROJECT
As explained above, this is a proposal to conduct a 4.0 km-deep fault zone drilling project into the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, CA. The reasons Parkfield was chosen for this project and an overview of geologic and geophysical knowledge of the area are presented below. The reasons why we are proposing a drilling project that penetrates the San Andreas to only 4.0 km and not the depth at which great earthquakes nucleate (~10 km) are fairly obvious: ultra-deep drilling into an active fault zone is extraordinarily expensive and difficult (see discussion in Hickman et al., 1995b) and before one could justify such a project, it is necessary to demonstrate that drilling and sampling in the fault zone is technically feasible and that the scientific objectives of such a project can be met.
By drilling to 4.0 km, we will reach temperatures of about 135°C (C. Williams, pers. comm., 1998). Although this is less than the critical temperatures of 200-300° C where some of the key questions (summarized above) about mineral stability, chemically assisted deformation mechanisms and fluid pressure compartmentalization might be addressed, and less than the depths at which major earthquakes typically nucleate, the scientific opportunities presented by drilling to 4.0 km are appreciable and allow us to address a number of first-order questions related to fault mechanics:
An important scientific benefit of conducting this project at Parkfield comes from the fact that by working at Parkfield we will be drilling in an area of active creep and microseismicity. If deep drilling into the San Andreas fault zone is eventually done, it is likely that it will be done in an area where the fault produces infrequent, but very large earthquakes (such as the sections that broke in the great 1857 and 1906 earthquakes). These sections of the fault are "locked" in the upper ~10 km during the interseismic period. Thus, by having conducted the pilot project in a creeping area we will have set the stage for trying to understand why some sections of the fault creep and other sections are locked. Further, by drilling in an actively slipping portion of the fault, during the monitoring phase of the experiment we will be able to study the nucleation and rupture processes of microearthquakes with near-field seismic recordings, investigate whether temporal variations of pore pressure occur during fault slip (creep and earthquakes) and study the processes responsible for shear localization.
Why Parkfield?
The objectives of this project require
a geologic target with clear and attainable scientific goals that
will also serve as a fair test of the technology required to drill
a deep hole into the fault. Since we first decided to propose
drilling a pilot hole, we focused on sites with shallow seismicity,
a clear geologic contrast across the fault and good working knowledge
of the geological and geophysical environment of the fault.
The requirement for shallow seismicity was key for two reasons. First, we would like to be able to conduct experiments within or very close to seismically active parts of the fault, for the reasons discussed above. Second, we can use the ongoing seismicity to tell us the precise location of the active trace of the fault. In a sense we will use the background seismic activity as "guide stars" to direct the fault zone crossing. To identify potential candidate sites we conducted a systematic search of the strike-slip faults in California, identifying all faults that met the shallow seismicity criteria. To our surprise, this criteria eliminated all candidate faults in southern California. In central and northern California only three fault segments met the criteria for reasonably complete geological and geophysical control. These were the Hayward fault near San Leandro, the San Andreas fault in the Cienega Road to Melendy Ranch region and the Middle Mountain region along the Parkfield segment.
We convened a workshop on the scientific goals, experimental design, and site selection for a ~3-km borehole from July 11-12, 1994, at the USGS in Menlo Park that was attended by about 45 people. Although all three potential sites had unique advantages, it became clear that the Middle Mountain site at Parkfield was the best place to conduct the proposed experiment because:
The latter point is a consequence of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment (see Roeloffs and Langbein, 1994). A critical review of this experiment is the subject of the Hager Committee Report (1994) to the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, in which it was concluded that "Parkfield remains the best identified locale to trap an earthquake." While our goals are more modest, the considered judgment of those involved in the site selection process concurred with this conclusion.
An important new discovery about Parkfield that strongly supports its selection as the drilling target and adds a new scientific dimension to the experiment is the observation that the majority of the earthquakes there repeat in a characteristic manner. Although this was anticipated by us based on more limited studies (Ellsworth, 1996; Nadeau and McEvilly, 1997) have now completed a thorough documentation of this behavior beneath Middle Mountain. The upshot is that we will be targeting specific earthquake source zones with the drill hole, and have a very high expectation that the target earthquakes will repeat numerous times over the lifetime of the experiment.
One point that should not be overlooked is the difficulty of obtaining permission to drill holes of any kind in California. At Middle Mountain, however, the once off-limits southwestern approach to the fault had become accessible due to the inheritance of the land by a cooperative new landowner. Thus, logistical as well as scientific considerations also favored the Parkfield site. We have a signed agreement with the landowner at Parkfield that will allow us to carry out the proposed drilling and downhole measurements and then access the site for 20 years during the fault zone monitoring phase of the experiment.The San Andreas Fault at Parkfield
The San Andreas Fault at Parkfield
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| Figure 6. Earthquake locations at Parkfield from 1984-1990, togehter with the location of the proposed drillhole. (click for more information) |
An important feature of the microearthquakes beneath Middle Mountain is that they occur in families of repeating events. Individual earthquakes have been observed to recur numerous times using the U.C. Berkeley High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), at precisely the same location and with the same magnitude (Nadeau et al., 1994, 1995; Nadeau and McEvilly, 1997). Repeating sources of up to M=2 are located at drillable depths beneath the proposed drill site. Thus, a major goal of this experiment will be to drill as close as possible to one or more of these sources and to follow the build-up of strain and its release through multiple earthquake cycles during the monitoring phase of the experiment. A new-and controversial-prediction for these repeating events is the possibility that they may have localized stress drops in the kilobar range (Nadeau and Johnson, 1998). If confirmed, this will have wide-ranging implications for fault mechanics and the stress/heat-flow paradox.
Almost all events along this fault segment have right-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms, corresponding to the geologic sense of movement on the fault (Eberhart-Phillips and Michael, 1993). Non-San Andreas type earthquakes close to the San Andreas include strike-slip, normal and reverse faulting mechanisms, the vast majority of which have P or T axis orientations in agreement with a north-south shortening and east-west extension within the fault zone. The few events that locate more than about 5 km from the San Andreas fault, however, commonly have P-axes oriented at a high angle to the fault, which is consistent with the regional framework of fault normal compression and a weak fault (Zoback et al, 1987). Also, recent heat-flow determinations by Sass et al. (1997) in 17 wells located within 10 km of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield-including a 1.6-km-deep well located 12 km from the proposed drill site-confirm previous conclusions (Lachenbruch et al., 1980) that there is no heat flow anomaly associated with the San Andreas fault in central California, indicating that the fault is sliding under low levels of resolved shear stress.
Beginning in the summer of 1994, members of the Site Selection
Working Group for the San Andreas pilot project have conducted
a number of relatively small-scale and detailed geophysical investigations
to fill critical gaps in our knowledge about subsurface structure
and microearthquake locations at the Parkfield site. A temporary
seismic network was installed on and around Middle Mountain to
calibrate crustal structure and study fault-zone guided waves
near the proposed drill site (Li et al., 1997). This experiment
included deployment of temporary seismic stations (to augment
the permanent local networks), three chemical shot points and
a 10-station REFTEK array crossing the surface trace of the San
Andreas. Additionally, a small-scale seismic reflection survey
was conducted by Peter Malin at Middle Mountain along two 2-km-long
orthogonal lines west of the San Andreas fault (see Unsworth et
al., 1997). The purpose of this survey, which employed a single
vibroseis energy source and 128 receivers per line, was to determine
the thickness of Tertiary sediments beneath the proposed drilling
site. Two magnetotelluric (MT) profiles were also conducted at
Middle Mountain to determine the electrical conductivity structure
of the fault zone and its surroundings (Unsworth et al., 1997;
M. Unsworth., pers. comm., 1998). Finally, Mike Rymer (USGS) has
initiated detailed geologic mapping to ascertain the geometry
and recency of faulting near the Parkfield drill site.
At Parkfield we have at our disposal some of the most accurately
located catalog seismicity available anywhere. In spite of this,
absolute locations for shallow seismicity beneath the proposed
drill site derived by two independent analyses of Parkfield 3-D
velocity structure (Michelini and McEvilly, 1991; Eberhart-Phillips
and Michael, 1993; R. Nadeau, written comm., 1996) differ by up
to one kilometer. Ellsworth (1996) performed a simultaneous inversion
of arrivals from 6 earthquakes and three chemical explosions recorded
by the temporary seismic array at Middle Mountain for earthquake
locations and velocity structure. His analysis indicates that
the shallowest events comprising a recurring cluster of small-magnitude
earthquakes (M=1-2) occur at a depth of about 2.8 km below sea
level, or 3.5 km beneath the proposed drill site. An independent
analysis of these data by R. Nadeau and colleagues at Lawrence
Berkeley Laboratory (written comm., 1996) place the depth of these
events 300 m shallower. Uncertainties also remain in the epicentral
locations of this cluster, which might be directly beneath the
surface trace or about 1 km to the southwest. However, given the
large (1.6 km) southwest set-back of the drill site from the surface
trace of the San Andreas, it is likely that over time, small (M~1-2)
earthquakes will be occurring within a few hundred meters, or
less, of seismometers emplaced in the borehole (see Figure
9, below). The longitudinal cross-section of seismicity shown
in Figure 7
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| Figure 7. Longitudinal cross-section of earthquake hypocenters. (click for more information) |
The characteristics of the microearthquakes beneath Middle Mountain have been extensively studied by Nadeau and McEvilly (1997), particularly beneath our alternate drilling site located ~3 km south of the primary site (see Figure 7). Their work clearly demonstrates the repetitive nature of the earthquakes within our drilling targets. Recent analysis by R. Nadeau (written comm., 1998) of seismicity located directly beneath the primary site also reveals characteristic earthquake behavior, with recurrence patterns similar to those seen beneath the alternate site. At both locations, waveform correlations were used to show that the same very limited regions on the fault plane fail repeatedly in earthquakes of uniform size. The recurrence intervals between these events are regular, and are best described as a renewal process with memory. An important difference between the two sites is in the magnitudes of the largest repeating events: M~1 at the alternate site and M~2 at the primary site. Thus, we feel confident that either site can meet our science goals, but that the northernmost site offers the best chance for success in that it allows us to target larger-magnitude events.
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| Figure 8. Geologic map of the Parkfield site, with cross-section. (click for more information) |
The San Andreas fault is the most prominent structural feature
in central California and especially in the Middle Mountain region.
Comparison of sedimentary rock and their ages exposed near the
fault indicate that the main trace has been in the same place
for at least the past 2 Ma. Many other faults, active splays and
older traces of the San Andreas are present both southwest and
northeast of the main trace. In general, the older traces trend
slightly more westerly than the main trace, possibly indicating
minor tectonic rotations. More abundant faults and a higher degree
of shearing are noticeable as one approaches the main trace of
the San Andreas fault from either side, even within the relatively
little-deformed Salinian block. In fact, at the proposed drill
site on the west side of Middle Mountain, numerous faults are
interpreted to cut upper Cenozoic and basement rocks. These faults
trend subparallel to the San Andreas and are mapped to the southwest
of the main trace by as much as 3 km (Figure
8a).
Figure 9 shows an electrical resistivity
model of the upper crust through the primary drilling site derived
from a recent MT profile conducted by M. Unsworth (pers. comm.,
1998); similar results were obtained by Unsworth et al. (1997)
through the alternate drill site (see Figure
8a). The resistivity structure at depth clearly defines the
position of
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| Figure 9. Resitivity structure of the primary drill site. (click for more information) |
There are two sets of microearthquake locations shown in Figure
9 based on locations determined in 3-D velocity models by Michellini
and McEvilly (1991) and Eberhardt-Phillips and Michael (1993).
Note that the Eberhardt-Phillips and Michael locations are systematically
further east than the Michellini and McEvilly locations. The hypocentral
locations differ because the velocity models and location procedures
used by the two groups differ. While the Eberhardt-Phillips and
Michael locations are more consistent with the surface position
of the essentially vertical San Andreas, the Michellini and McEvilly
locations fall along the abrupt (likely fault-controlled) western
edge of the broad fault zone. A detailed calibration experiment
while the hole is being drilled at depths of ~1.5 and ~2 km (described
below) will determine a more exact location for the hypocenters
(see also Nadeau and McEvilly, 1997). Monitoring earthquakes with
seismometers in the borehole after it is drilled (also described
below) will yield extremely precise earthquake locations to guide
subsequent coring operations. Given the width and offset of the
electrical anomaly seen in the MT results (Figure
9) as well as uncertainties in absolute earthquake locations,
we expect that the active trace (or traces) of the San Andreas
fault may be encountered anywhere within the inclined section
of the hole.
Anomalous Fault Zone Properties. It is not surprising that
the physical properties of crustal rocks on opposite sides of
the San Andreas fault should differ (Figures 6b, 8b, and 9), given
the vastly different rock types juxtaposed across the San Andreas
fault at Middle Mountain. Seismic wave velocities and densities
in these rock assemblages differ significantly, leading to readily-observable
changes in crustal properties at the fault (e.g. Wesson, 1971;
Pavoni, 1973; Ellsworth, 1975; Aki and Lee, 1976; Walter and Mooney,
1982; Michelini and McEvilly, 1991; and Eberhart-Phillips and
Michael, 1993; Thurber et al., 1996, 1997).
The lateral transition in crustal properties across the San Andreas
fault, however, involves larger changes than can be readily explained
on the basis of rock composition alone. The P-wave velocity contrast
across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, for example, is sufficiently
strong that laterally refracted P-waves from the faster southwest
side characteristically appear as first arrivals at seismographs
located near the fault on the slower northeast side (McNally and
McEvilly, 1977). Studies of the internal structure of the fault
zone using explosion sources reveal a low-velocity fault zone
with a width of a few km at most locations along the central San
Andreas fault (Healy and Peake, 1975; Feng and McEvilly, 1983;
Li et al., 1997) and other actively creeping faults (Mooney and
Luetgert, 1982). Seismic P-wave tomography of the fault zone determined
using local earthquake sources reveals that the region of anomalously
low P-wave velocities extends well into the seismic zone in the
Bear Valley/Cienega Valley region further to the north (Lin and
Roecker, 1997; Thurber et al., 1997), and thus is believed to
reflect unusual physical conditions within the core of the active
fault zone. The anomalous nature of the crust is sometimes better
expressed in the behavior of the Vp/Vs ratio than it is in either velocity
field alone (see Julian et al., 1996, and Thurber et al., 1997).
At Parkfield, the fault has an anomalously high Vp/Vs ratio of 1.9 (Michelini and McEvilly,
1991), which is the consequence of a much greater reduction in
the S-velocity than in the P-velocity. Even higher Vp/Vs
ratios (>2.1) were found by Thurber et al. (1997) within the
San Andreas fault zone in the Cienega Valley.
The low seismic wave velocities within the San Andreas fault zone
have also been observed more directly though the detection of
trapped-mode and interface waves at Parkfield and elsewhere (e.g.
Li and Leary, 1990; Li et al., 1990; Ben-Zion and Malin, 1991;
Leary and Ben-Zion, 1992; Jongmans and Malin, 1995; Li et al.,
1997). Indeed, these waves-which reflect very low velocities in
the core of the fault throughout the seismic zone-have been observed
even along faults that have no large-scale difference in crustal
structure across them, and thus must reflect a characteristic
property of active fault zones (Hough et al., 1994; Li et al.,
1994). The width of the low-velocity fault zone is typically only
a few hundred of meters or narrower.
Other crustal properties, notably electrical resistivity, correlate
well with the observed velocity anomalies at the fault zone (e.g.
Eberhart-Phillips et al., 1990, 1995). In addition to the major
conductivity anomaly coincident with the San Andreas fault at
Middle Mountain (Figure 9), fault zone
guided wave studies conducted as part of the site characterization
effort at Parkfield (discussed above) provide clear evidence for
a strong low velocity anomaly within the fault zone at the proposed
drill site (Li et al., 1997). This anomalous zone beneath Middle
Mountain also has a profound effect on the propagation of S-waves,
splitting them because of fault-parallel anisotropy in the shear
wave velocity structure (Jongmans and Malin, 1995). By combining
electrical and seismic techniques, it should be possible to place
much tighter constraints on the nature of the anomalous fault
zone properties than can be achieved with any single method (Eberhart-Phillips
et al., 1995).
The coincidence of anomalously low seismic velocities within the
fault zone with strong wave attenuation within it (Blakeslee et
al., 1989) and the region of high electrical conductivity provide
strong evidence for unusual conditions within the fault zone at
Middle Mountain. Elevated fluid pressure within the core of the
active fault zone (as proposed by Rice, 1992, Byerlee, 1990, Sleep
and Blanpied, 1992, and others) represents one plausible explanations
for these anomalies. Alternatively, these anomalies might merely
represent a zone of intense fracturing and hydrothermal alteration
at near-hydrostatic fluid pressures. One of the goals of the proposed
drilling experiment at Parkfield is to calibrate these surface-based
observations against in-situ measurements and core studies. This
calibration, in turn, will allow for more reliable inferences
of fault-zone properties and physical state from geophysical profiles
elsewhere along the San Andreas fault and along faults in other
tectonic environments.
The Expected M ~ 6
Earthquake
The site we have
selected also lies virtually at the epicenter of the 1966 Parkfield
earthquake (Figure 6). Thus, one final
question about the seismicity at Parkfield deserves some discussion:
What would happen should the anticipated Parkfield mainshock
occur either before or after the drilling experiment is completed?
Should the earthquake occur before the hole is either drilled
or completed, we can anticipate an enhanced production rate of
shallow earthquakes as part of the aftershock sequence, which
would add to the return of the fault zone monitoring stage of
the experiment.
Should the Parkfield mainshock occur after the hole is completed, it is likely that the coseismic displacement of the earthquake would extend through our fault crossings. This presents the possibility that we might observe the nucleation and initial rupture propagation of a M=6 earthquake at close range. While this is not an earthquake prediction experiment, the opportunity to make observations of seismicity, pore pressure, deformation and temperature directly within a fault zone preceding and during a moderate earthquake is a truly unique opportunity. If the M=6 Parkfield earthquake should occur during the lifetime of the experiment, we would make unique observations not only of preparatory fault zone processes but also of the dynamics of rupture propagation and the energetics of large-scale faulting.
As noted above, the dominant pattern is spatial stationarity of the seismicity (clusters), even through two Parkfield earthquake cycles (Nadeau et al, 1994; Cole and Ellsworth, 1995). The spatial stationarity of seismicity through other mainshock events elsewhere in the San Andreas fault system is the norm, and has been well-documented in many cases (e.g. Ellsworth, 1975). Furthermore, it is now known that repeating earthquake sources can be triggered into rapid repetition as aftershocks, when located near or within a mainshock rupture zone (Vidale et al., 1994; Ellsworth 1995). Thus, should the M~6 Parkfield earthquake occur during the lifetime of the experiment, we might also have an unparalleled opportunity to observe time-dependent loading and frictional behavior in the near field (Marone et al., 1995).
Another problem we face might be referred to as the "large-scale" heterogeneity problem. One could argue that even a profile of measurements across the fault zone is still a "point" observation, the significance of which may be difficult to assess in terms of overall fault behavior. While it is almost impossible to counter such arguments (one can always argue that regardless of what we find, conditions would be different elsewhere) the point of conducting the proposed experiment is that there are currently no unequivocal constraints on fault zone composition, properties or state at depth. Thus, whatever is learned will be a dramatic improvement in our ability to constrain existing hypotheses about fault zone processes as well as provide critically-needed constraints for future laboratory and theoretical studies. We propose to conduct the proposed experiment along a section of the fault whose behavior is well known, which will make interpretation of the results obtained as straightforward as possible. Moreover, by making geophysical measurements of fault zone processes on the core, in the hole and from the surface to the hole we will be able to extrapolate our observations away from the borehole.